Thresholds - tipping points in people

The topic of thresholds came up a few times over the past few weeks in my conversations about a number of different topics, and I thought it was pretty interesting, since every time I hear the word threshold, I think of Vt - the threshold voltage for a CMOS to switch from 0 to 1 or vice-versa. Those who have ever take circuits at MIT would understand why - Vt is your life.

Beyond being totally geeky though, it has been interesting to see that there are many other places in which under a certain level nothing happens, but just a little more passes the "tipping point", and then things abruptly change.

One of the discussions that continues to resurface arises whenever we talk about comparative government. Europeans are very passionate about personal freedoms and rights, seemingly even more so than Americans. In part, as the Swiss would have you believe, because they have a "truer" democracy than the US and so the system is more functional, and in part because, talking to the Eastern Europeans, having lived under oppression and restrictions, the alternative is quite horrid.

On the other side of the spectrum are folks from China and jaded Americans like myself who are willing to see a compromise in personal freedom in order for more sustainable and hopefully more socially optimal growth. Now one of course would hope that the two are not mutually exclusive, and perhaps you could argue that India has both. However, having experienced India first hand, I would say that the perception is that they have both, but the reality is that they don't really have either today.

So then the question arises - is it inevitable that the desire for greater personal freedom will eventually surpass a planned governments' ability to control it? Or are people willing to indefinitely live with a compromise as long as their other needs are met?

Personally it seems like there's a threshold that people are willing to tolerate, and as long as the government operates below that threshold, it can continue indefinitely. Take the US right now. Although around 65% of Americans oppose the war, the troops are still there. Now this tells me two things - one, that America is not a true democracy since clearly the majority is not getting its way; two, that perhaps because most of the needs of the people are met, eventhough the government has made a debacle of Iraq, been tainted with bribery, violated the Geneva conventions and the Bill of Rights, people just don't care enough to revolt and get rid of the current regime.

So now transplant this same attitude to places like China and Singapore. Yes they censor the media and have greater restrictions on personal freedom, but is that really that bad if they are able to increase the general standard of living and provide for its citizens? For China, there is a very real problem with figuring out how to keep a population more than 4 times the US clothed, feed, and healthy - let alone happy. And that's with a GDP that's less than a 5th the size. Now's that's an interesting problem to solve.

Sidenote: I thought this chart was pretty cool:

Any way, I just think it's really interesting to note that people, like transistors, have a threshold in which they abruptly switch from one state to another. I guess in some sense, that's why sometimes people snap. They've been operating just under the threshold and even the most miniscule thing might put them over the top... scary...

Who pays 85% premium???

Microsoft to Buy Online Advertising Firm AQuantive for $6B in cash. The
$66.50-per-share purchase price represents an 85 percent premium to aQuantive's
Thursday closing price of $35.87.

I just spent the last week learning about financial valuations, and I don't see how there's any way aQuantive is worth that much. aQuantive went from being a $900M company to a $6B one. Give me a break.

I don't understand how MS could balk at paying $1.65 for YouTube, and $2.1 for DoubleClick, both of which at least would have given them users and good technology that complements their existing offerings, and instead offer more than double the 2 deals combined for businesses that are even focused on technology. aQuantive is a consulting business for helping clients advertise online. My god.

SELL SELL SELL!!! Desperation!!!

Late night fast food

I hate McDonalds for:

1) Being open at 3am
2) Being located smack in the city center
3) Sounding (and actually being) so good late night

I should sue them. Oh I forgot, I'm in Europe. People don't do things like that.

Btw, in case you're wondering who I've been stuck with 24 hours a day, check out the pictures here. I haven't had a chance to actually talk about the experience much yet. Maybe tomorrow.

ok so this guy is pretty impressive...

Crazy Dice tricks - Click Here for more great videos and pictures!

There's gotta be some trick right Jordan?

Applying Economics

So a buddy of mine just emailed me complaining about his luck with the ladies, and since I've been in class the past week refreshing my econ knowledge, I thought I'd take the chance to do some "analysis" of his situation.

I think you have a few basic economic factors working against you. (yes, clearly I've been in economics and finance classes all week). Quality in this case would mean the overall value of the girl, and "price" meaning the total amount in tangible and intangible assets you are willing to give.

1) You are in a market where the "supply" is constrained and "inelastic". Even if the "price" your willing to pay goes up a lot, the supply doesn't change significantly - assuming you hold quality constant - it's not like ppl are going to have more daughters just because they can marry them off well. In a more "efficient" market, you would have lower quality being matched to lower "prices", but since there is a great deal of "asymmetric information" in the market, the market operates in more of a first come first serve basis.

2) Since the market operates in a first come first serve basis, the guys that enter early on generally reap a bigger "consumer surplus", while those girls entering early would typically lose more of the "producer surplus" they may have gotten if they waited. However, they are compenstated for their surplus by trading off "risk".

3) As the age of both the guys and the girls go up, the girls demand more "producer surplus", but although the guys have greater "assets", their demand for the older women do not go up proportionally since there are "substitute" goods - i.e. younger women - who are willing to give up more surplus to offset risk. However, because the markets are inefficient, it is difficult for these guys to participate in the substitute market. Yet the demand for women steadily becoming more inelastic as guys age - so for the same quality they are willing to pay a higher price.

Net net, since HK is so small, it is highly likely that all the good ones are taken early on, since any one that's got a good one will keep it. The older you get, the more demanding the woman, and for the same quality you'll need to have more money/more love than before. You have 2 choices to optimize your surplus: go younger so you can get high quality for low "price", although you take on greater risk, or shell out a high "price".

Otherwise, you should exit and participate in a different market - I hear China is growing... ;)

Econ is awesome. It's so full of sh*t. HAHAHAHHAHHAHAA...

I'm such a geek. Of course I should have known that on the email was an econ major, and Arthur's reply:

econ is full of sh*t. the only thing that i agree to your paper is your economic observation that China is growing. however, i recommend that you enter this market with caution because i'm sure you all remember the economic theory on "Lemons" - girls, cars... arent they just a commodity... haha j/k

To give you some hope tim. i'd like to highlight that despite all high quality girls are highly likely to be taken when they're young due to "asymmetric information", they are not all taken by equally high quality guys and these girls can exercise their "option" to break-up.

It's amazing how random our conversations can be. (^u^)

Trust

So easy to lose, so hard to earn.

I wonder if it's better to be more trusting and believe that people are generally honest, or being more skeptical. I think most people start out life as the former, and depending on the people around them and the things they go through, they gradually move towards the latter. In essence, one's ability to trust depends on the caliber of people around you.

What's sad then is when one becomes jaded by dishonest people, and extends that sense to other people who are actually honest. Would that be considered rational or irrational behavior? It's rational since you've been duped once, so clearly you should be on the look out for being duped again. On the other hand, just because there was one bad apple, doesn't mean apples are bad.

Well anyway, I digress. What I wanted to say was that it's annoying that even the most insignificant act of stupidity can have such a disproportionate impact on trust - and those that know me know that I'm all about the stupid things. sigh.

I'm just count my blessings that people care enough about me to overlook my stupidity.

Btw, I am very grateful for having friends that showed their concern both directly and indirectly. It does mean a lot to me. Thanks.

Marking a bad day

Today is a bad day. It didn't start out bad, but it turned bad in the middle, and only got worse.

I always knew that when my body is in pain, my mind suffers as well. It's hard to concentrate, my mood sucks, my temper flares. What I didn't really realize, or maybe I guess I just forgot since it hasn't happened in so long, is that when your mind suffers, your body suffers too. Trembling fingers, shortness of breath, pain in your gut, feeling ready to puke... You'd think evolution would be smarter than that. I can see value in having your mind understand physical pain so you can do something about it, but I don't see any benefit in your body feeling your mental pain other than making you feel even more like crap.

I guess it's good to know I'm human and I have feelings, but I wouldn't mind just being a machine for a while right now.

Johnny 5 anyone?