Wednesday, August 1, 2007

When in doubt, do nothing...

Usually when I have doubts/reservations about doing something, my first instinct is to not do it. The funny thing is of course, is that because I've realized that's the way I am, more often than not, I end up overcompensating and forcing myself to do something against my gut feel.

It was like that when I bought these shares in this really stupid timeshare thing - ultimate scam - and now, having learned my lesson, I guess I'm going to stick with my instincts on buying a house. I was really looking forward to being a land baron - owning a place that we could fix up and enjoy - but after the thunderstorm my little house buying parade went through, it's just very hard to justify.

My plan is to leave Seattle in 2-3 years. Not sure where to yet, but we're definitely going to move to a different city. As such, the only way it would make sense for me to buy a house is if I could rent it out to almost cover the mortgage, or the home value skyrocketed so I can sell it. I actually modeled the rent and invest down payment scenario and compared it to the down payment and buy scenario, and there's a rough break even point at about 7-8 years, at which point it's all better to own a house. Sadly, that's not my time horizon for actually living in it. Although we could get someone to manage the home for us afterwards, given the slim likelihood that we would actually ever live there later in life, and the hassle/cost of managing the renting process, the math just doesn't add up.

So I'm back to being cash rich and home poor. Now the question is what to do with the cash? The stock market is all over the place, the bond market is stagnant... what to do what to do...

Oh btw, I'm super annoyed that I missed out on Garmin - I said I was going to buy them like a month ago, but I've been holding my money for the house in case I was going to buy one, and of course, GRMN went up 10% today. ARGH!!!

I guess I just need the market to correct again before I buy in. In the meantime, it's a renter's life for me.

1 comment:

sok said...

we are obviously cautious ppl.. never make a huge mistake, but never make huge gains.. living somewhere in the middle
i think life can get quite boring this way..
if we are to gamble... we should gamble when we're young and don't have others counting on us.. maybe we'll actually roll the dice on your start-up someday.. for now, i'll go to school to be a dentist and you'll work your way up as a consultant.. *yawn*